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NFL Week 11 Bettor’s Guide: Giants have no shot at beating Chiefs


From the best NFL games to bet, to the ones you should steer clear of, check out our guide to get you through the week a winner.


CHIEFS at GIANTS


1 p.m., Ch. 2, Chiefs by 10½, 45½


HANK’S HONEYS: You ’re tempted to take the Giants because they’re such a huge home dog (double digits for the first time since Week 17 of 2007) and then you remember how much of a big play offense the Chiefs have and how many big plays the Giants have been allowing. Andy Reid (16-2 SU after bye) has one of the most complex playbooks in the league and there hasn’t been a lot of focus in that Giant defense lately. Think they’ll contain Kareem Hunt? Or Travis Kelce? They’ve been getting burned by tight ends. Besides, Chiefs, losers of 3-of-last-4, both SU and ATS, need to regroup and with a bye week and against a reeling opponent, they have the perfect opportunity to do it. This one looks ugly.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chiefs and the over.


JAGUARS at BROWNS


1 p.m., Jaguars by 7½, 37½


HANK’S HONEYS: Bottom line: Browns just aren ’t tough enough to hang with his crew. They just keep running out of gas and the Jaguars have the kind of team that will wear you down. Losing LB Jamie Collins for the season is bad timing against the Jacksonville run game and DeShone Kizer is bound to make a few boneheaded plays in panic mode against the Jacksonville pass rush. Five of the Jaguars’ six victories have been by double digits (last week was the exception) and there’s no reason they can’t continue that trend here. When you lose by 14 and come out of it feeling better about yourselves, that’s a problem. You can’t go wrong betting against the Browns the rest of the year as they beat the Giants to the No. 1 pick. They are truly hapless.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jags and the under.


EAGLES at COWBOYS


8:30 p.m., Eagles by 4, 48½

The Giants vs. Chiefs game may get ugly.

(Ben Margot/AP)


HANK’S HONEYS: The Cowboys missed Tyron Smith more than they did Ezekiel Elliott against the Falcons. If Smith can ’t go and he’s doubtful Dak Prescott is going to be even more of a piñata against the Eagles’ front seven. The Boys will be missing LB Sean Lee, who is just as big a difference-maker on defense, especially against an Eagles offense that can do so many things. The Eagles suddenly have versatility and weapons everywhere, including the backfield, and Carson Wentz has been the real deal running the whole show. Coming off a bye, they’ll be well-rested and hungry. This is a must-win game for the Cowboys and they responded well in a similar situation against the Chiefs. Still, the unflappable Birds should be primed to kick the hated Cowboys down into the curb.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the over.


PATS vs. RAIDERS


4:25 p.m., Ch. 2, Patriots by 6½, 54½


HANK’S HONEYS: Pats aren ’t often favored by less than a TD, which makes them all the more attractive at this neutral site. Raiders’ offense has been totally inconsistent while Pats D has really picked it up since its dreadful start, limiting a team to 20 points and under in its last five games. Tom Brady has to be salivating. Raiders are thin at CB position, haven’t had an interception in nine games and are tied for last in the league in sacks. Plus, they don’t really have the personnel at LB to hold up when Brady targets his TEs and RBs. Pats are hitting their stride, looking to make a run at a first-round bye and the Raiders are in the way. Schedule gets tougher after this.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots and the over.


BUCS at DOLPHINS


1 p.m., Dolphins by 1, 40½


HANK’S HONEYS: Is there any reason Miami should be favored over anybody, including the University of Miami? Even coach Adam Gase says, “we lost our way.” In other words, they are in freefall, made to look feeble by a Panthers team that isn’t at all that dominant. Their offense can’t finish drives and their defense looks as though it’s not even interested. The Bucs have been just as disappointing but at least they are showing some fight, staying in games and getting veteran leadership from backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeSean Jackson. That was a gutty effort to beat the Jets. Bucs will follow Panthers’ script and run the ball. Against a team that’s quit, it should be easy.

(New York Daily News)


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bucs and the under


CARDS at TEXANS


1 p.m., Texans by 1, 39½


HANK’S HONEYS: Blaine Gabbert will start for Drew Stanton, not that it ’s much of a downgrade and when the other team has Tom Savage on the mound, does it really matter? Determining factor here is that Texans defense is an absolute mess with all of their injuries. It probably couldn’t even stop the Dolphins . . . O.K., maybe the Dolphins would stop themselves. But the Cardinals still have Adrian Peterson running the ball and Larry Fitzgerald catching it. Their defense still has a few playmakers left. Patrick Peterson is capable of keeping DeAndre Hopkins in check.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cards and the under.


BILLS at CHARGERS


4:05 p.m., Ch. 5, Chargers by 4, 43½


HANK’S HONEYS: Bills ’ magic has worn off and they’re running out of gas. Their defense has been exposed now that they haven’t been producing turnovers. They were embarrassed by the Jets and Saints in their last two games, unable to stop the run or the pass. Philip Rivers is in concussion protocol. That’s a concern but Melvin Gordon should find holes in the Buffalo front. The Bills are dealing with injuries on the O-line and have a tough assignment against Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. They’ll be going after a rookie QB making his first start in Nathan Peterman with Sean McDermott benching Tyrod Taylor. The move hasn’t gone over well in the locker room.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chargers and the under.

Alex Smith.

Alex Smith.

(Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)


LIONS at BEARS


1 p.m., Lions by 3, 41½


HANK’S HONEYS: What looks like an easy win for the Lions isn ’t. Soldier Field will be no place for an indoor team Sunday with temperatures of 25 made colder by 25 mph winds. That should help negate Matt Stafford and really, what else is there on the Lions offense? They can’t run the ball, ranked 30th in yards per carry, which is probably why they are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games on grass. On top of that, they somehow got outplayed by the Browns for most of last week’s game, needing another Stafford comeback. The Bears aren’t very good and there’s a lot of tumult flying around John Fox’s head. But they can run the ball on Lions and the team that runs best here wins.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bears and the under.


FALCONS at HAWKS


Mon., ESPN, 8:30 p.m., Hawks by 3, 45


HANK’S HONEYS: The Seahawks lost seven players to injury against the Cardinals and the Legion of Boom could be bust. Richard Sherman is out for the year, Kam Chancellor is seeing specialists for neck stingers and Earl Thomas may or may not be back after missing two weeks with a hamstring. Into this scenario steps Matt Ryan, who has been finding his groove the last three games. Seattle ’s offensive line is still a little leaky with the Falcons coming off an eight-sack effort vs. Dallas. Home field advantage isn’t what it once was. Hawks lost to Washington and failed to cover against Houston in last two there. On top of that, Dan Quinn is Seattle’s former DC and should know a few state secrets.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Falcons and the under.


WASHINGTON at SAINTS


1 p.m. Saints by 7½, 51

(New York Daily News)


HANK’S HONEYS: Everything is going right for the Saints , who have won seven straight by an average score of 33-14. Drew Brees is playing at a high level and he has a complementary running game and a defense that can stop people. Last time Saints had that, they won the Super Bowl. Kirk Cousins has been playing relatively well, but force-fed running game has struggled and they’ll be asking him to do too much against this secondary. Washington has been playing tough, physical games each week (Eagles, Cowboys, Seahawks and Vikings) and could be wearing down. Saints control the clock so well that the DC defense will be on the field for long stretches. Not good.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Saints and the under.


BEST OF THE REST


RAVENS at PACKERS


1 p.m. Ravens by 2, 37½


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the under.


BENGALS at BRONCOS


4:25 p.m. Broncos by 2½, 39½

Jared Goff.

Jared Goff.

(Jae C. Hong/AP)


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bengals and the over.


LOOK DON’T TOUCH


RAMS at VIKINGS


1 p.m., Vikings by 2, 46½


HANK’S HONEYS: Flip a coin in what could end up being the NFC Championship Game. Both teams are hot. The Rams are 4-0 on road. The Vikes are 4-1 at home. The Rams have the better quarterback — Jared Goff — and running back — Todd Gurley — but Mike Zimmer’s defense has given up fewer yards and the Rams, other than the Seahawks and Jaguars, haven’t faced a defense like this, the strongest against the run in the league. Case Keenum better not turn the ball over against a defense that leads the league in takeaways but the Vikings don’t take that many chances and he’ll be motivated against his former team. In the end we’ll go with the 7-2 team that’s getting points at home.


CAN’T HELP YOURSELF? Vikings and the over.


WEEK’S BEST BET


Patriots: Tom Brady es muy bueno.


LAST WEEK: 8-6


OVERALL: 68-74-1


BEST BETS: 3-6-1


OVER/UNDER: 56-88-2

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