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NFL odds and picks: Advanced computer model loving Under in Vikings-Saints

The two divisional round games in the NFL Playoffs on Sunday will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors. The Steelers are favored by a touchdown against the Jaguars and the Vikings are favored by 5.5 against the Saints in a game that has already seen plenty of line movement.

With two eye-popping games and NFL odds already on the move, you need to know what SportsLine’s advanced computer model is picking.

With a 178-82 record, SportsLine is beating nearly every expert tracked on NFLPickWatch for the second straight season.

And after finishing the regular season on a blistering 74-22 run, it’s fresh off a wild-card week in which it called the Falcons’ huge road upset over the Rams. On Saturday, it nailed the Eagles upsetting those same Falcons. Anyone who has followed its advice is up big.

With the divisional round here, the computer simulated every game 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.

We can tell you the model is loving the Under (46.5) in the Vikings-Saints game. The total actually opened at 44.5, but has since risen two points.

SportsLine’s model isn’t buying the ballooning Over-Under and says you can bank on the Under hitting in almost 60 percent of simulations. That’s in stark contrast to the general public, who is backing the Under only 44 percent of the time.

Both the Vikings and Saints boast top-10 scoring defenses. Minnesota is No. 1 in the league, allowing 15.8 points per game, while New Orleans is 10th at 20.4. Combined, these two teams allow an average of just 36.2 points.

Minnesota’s defense has been especially effective as of late; the unit has given up 17 total points in its last three games (Bengals, Packers, and Bears).

SportsLine’s advanced model says you can expect 44 points to be scored in Saints-Vikings, easily clearing the Under.

The model also has a strong against the spread picks for both Sunday games that you absolutely need to see and is calling for a team with strong Super Bowl aspirations to go down hard. You can only get those picks at SportsLine.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence on Sunday during the divisional round? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus find out which team with strong Super Bowl aspirations goes down hard, all from the model that nailed the Eagles’ upset of the Falcons, plus get NFL picks from 20 experts.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 41)
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 46.5)

CBS Sports Staff

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