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The weakening blue wave: Confident talk of a Democratic sweep in November has been greatly exaggerated

Presumably, we want a fuller explanation of what has been driving these races, which would allow us to have a better sense of how things might play out in the future. A major factor is the economy. It is a bit of a cliché to say that people vote their pocketbooks, and years where the economy fared poorly, such as 1938, 1946, 1958 and 1974, have seen the President’s party endure some of the worst outcomes on record. Midterm elections that occur in a cycle featuring brisk economic growth, such as 1998 and 1978, have gone much more smoothly for the President’s party.

Sean Trende

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